I do not presume to predict the exact voting pattern in the IOC. In 2013, it was comparatively easy when the big favourite Thomas Bach prevailed. In this 2024/25 election campaign, which is regulated beyond recognition, however, it is more difficult than ever. So I am telling to you once again: do not confuse this attempt to convert the suitability of the seven candidates into data and thus into a ranking (the IOC Presidential Index) with a prediction of the result.
The one may have nothing to do with the other.
After everything we have had to learn about the IOC in the past twelve years of the Bach era, we can continue to assume that the class of the candidates and their individual suitability for the job will perhaps not be the deciding factor in the election on 20 March in Greece.
If it were based on reasonably measurable and thus comparable criteria, the prediction would be relatively simple.
But that is not the point. The question of which candidate is demonstrably the most suitable has never been at the forefront of this election farce, which has developed an exciting geopolitical dynamic in recent weeks.
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